Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Al Okhdood 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.469 / defence 0.729 | Al Okhdood attack 0.649 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.439. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 64 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Al Okhdood 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Okhdood 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.66 / Al Okhdood 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.469 / def 0.729 | Al Okhdood attack 0.649 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Al Okhdood xG
46%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 79% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.66. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.65x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
79%
1.26
14%
7.35
7%
14.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.34
0.68
Al Okhdood xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.35
14%
Draw
14.16
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
7%
14.34
Win to Nil
40%
2.49
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.68 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 63 games, going 41W 10D 12L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.79 PPG from 63 outings (13W 11D 39L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 22W 6D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (7W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.90 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 41W 10D 12L in their last 63 games (2.11 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 13W 11D 39L in their last 63 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.32 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al Okhdood 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 42% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 42% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 42% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Okhdood 4-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.68 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.47 / defence 0.73 against Al Okhdood attack 0.65 / defence 1.20, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.