Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Al-Ahli Jeddah take on Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 0W 4D 0L across 4 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 0.75 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% and Al-Fateh 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 25% | Al-Fateh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG and Al-Fateh 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.818 / defence 1.147 | Al-Fateh attack 0.882 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.131. Data: 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 4 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 37% | Al-Fateh 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Al-Fateh 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% | Al-Fateh 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 37% | Al-Fateh 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 / Al-Fateh 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.818 / def 1.147 | Al-Fateh attack 0.882 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Fateh xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 17 September 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 28% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-4D-0L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.88x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
37%
2.68
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.17
1.15
Al-Fateh xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.15 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 4D 0L record — D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 25%.
Defensively: Al-Fateh in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 4D 0L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 100%, Al-Fateh 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 25% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 0% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG and Al-Fateh 1.15 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 37% | Al-Fateh 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%, Al-Fateh 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.