Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Faisaly FC to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.78 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.657 / defence 0.668 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.657 — their λ of 2.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Draw 15% | Al-Faisaly FC 5%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 | Draw 6.67 | Al-Faisaly FC 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (80%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Draw 15% | Al-Faisaly FC 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.78 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.657 / def 0.668 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Al-Faisaly FC xG
47%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 80% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 5% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.66x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
80%
1.25
15%
6.60
5%
20.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.45
0.67
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.25
80%
Home win
6.60
15%
Draw
20.12
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
6%
16.14
Win to Nil
41%
2.43
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.67 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 3W 0D 3L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 33% (Al-Faisaly FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.