Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Faisaly FC to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 83%.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% and Al-Faisaly FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 92% | Al-Faisaly FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.07 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.625 / defence 0.760 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.798 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.625 — their λ of 3.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 12 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 79% | Draw 14% | Al-Faisaly FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Faisaly FC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 79% | Draw 14% | Al-Faisaly FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.07 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.625 / def 0.760 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.798 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Faisaly FC xG
57%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 79% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.62x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 3.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
79%
1.26
14%
7.11
7%
15.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.97
0.90
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.11
14%
Draw
15.13
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
5%
21.59
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.07 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.90 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 8W 0D 4L from 12 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 6L across 12 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Al-Faisaly FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.08 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 0D 4L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Faisaly FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 50% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.