Al-Adalah 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Adalah versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Adalah have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al Shabab are the stronger side — 1.47 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Adalah — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Adalah 0% | Al Shabab 0%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Adalah 33% | Al Shabab 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 0.80 xG and Al Shabab 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.745 / defence 1.333 | Al Shabab attack 1.423 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.077. Al-Adalah's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Shabab have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Al-Adalah games / 33 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 14% | Draw 20% | Al Shabab 66%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | Al Shabab 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Adalah 0% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 14% | Draw 20% | Al Shabab 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Adalah 0.80 / Al Shabab 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.745 / def 1.333 | Al Shabab attack 1.423 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Al Shabab xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab?
Al-Adalah 0 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 14% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Shabab in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Adalah's attack rating (0.74) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.42x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
14%
7.34
20%
5.00
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.84
2.04
Al Shabab xG
7.34
14%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
2%
56.64
30%
3.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 2.04 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Adalah come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.67 PPG clear of Al-Adalah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 3.67 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Adalah have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 0%.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Adalah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Adalah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Shabab?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 1, Al Shabab have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Adalah.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al-Adalah) and 0% (Al Shabab) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Al-Adalah and 100% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Shabab in 100%; Al-Adalah have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 0% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Al-Adalah's matches and 100% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Adalah and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Adalah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Adalah 0-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 0.80 xG and Al Shabab 2.04 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.74 / defence 1.33 against Al Shabab attack 1.42 / defence 0.96, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 14% | Draw 20% | Al Shabab 66%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 33%, Al Shabab 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Shabab managed 1 against a 3.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.