Abha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Faisaly FC at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022 at 17:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Abha) versus 1.20 (Al-Faisaly FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Abha, 1 for Al-Faisaly FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 56% versus Al-Faisaly FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 48% | Al-Faisaly FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.34 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.844 / defence 1.117 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.630 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.176. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Abha games / 25 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 49% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.35. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 49% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Abha 1.34 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.844 / def 1.117 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.630 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Abha (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 17:10 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Abha 0 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 49% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Abha and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Abha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.84x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.56
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Abha xG
Total xG
2.17
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Abha and 0.83 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Abha have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 9W 5D 11L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 6W 10D 9L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.28 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 5D 7L from 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Abha's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.75 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Abha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 58%, Al-Faisaly FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Abha) and 33% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Abha's recent matches and 42% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Abha's recent games and 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Abha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Abha and Al-Faisaly FC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.34 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Abha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Faisaly FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.33, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 49% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 23%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 48%, Al-Faisaly FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.28 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.