Ural 0-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ekaterinburg Arena plays host to Ural versus Dynamo in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 21 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ural have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: L D L L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 Premier League outings this term — 2.25 points per game. Last five: W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dynamo have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Dynamo are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.25 vs 0.25). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Dynamo half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 25% versus Dynamo 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 25% | Dynamo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.98 xG and Dynamo 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.790 / defence 1.239 | Dynamo attack 0.948 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.409. Ural's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Ural games / 4 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 22% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 53%. Fair-value odds: Ural 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Dynamo 1.89. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ural 25% | Dynamo 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 22% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Ural 0.98 / Dynamo 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.790 / def 1.239 | Dynamo attack 0.948 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Dynamo xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Dynamo kick off?
Ural vs Dynamo kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Dynamo?
Ural 0 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Ural vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Dynamo part of?
Ural vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 22% chance of winning, Dynamo a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ural and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Dynamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and Dynamo in?
Ural (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-L-L. Dynamo (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ural's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Dynamo's attack (0.95x) against Ural's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
22%
4.59
26%
3.90
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Ural xG
Total xG
2.63
1.65
Dynamo xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
23.98
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ural and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Ural and 1.65 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ural's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 1L across 4 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ural heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Ural are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Dynamo in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Early Season
Dynamo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ural have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ural
0
Draws
4
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Dynamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, Dynamo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Ural 2-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 25%, Dynamo 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ural) and 75% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ural's recent matches and 75% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ural's recent games and 75% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Dynamo tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.98 xG and Dynamo 1.65 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.79 / defence 1.24 against Dynamo attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 22% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 53%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 25%, Dynamo 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.