Torpedo Moskva 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow meet at Stadion Luzhniki in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Torpedo Moskva's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 8L from 9 games (0.11 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Torpedo Moskva have posted 0W 0D 4L at Stadion Luzhniki — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 2.19 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.11) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Torpedo Moskva half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 56% of games.
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torpedo Moskva 44% versus CSKA Moscow 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 44% | CSKA Moscow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 0.79 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.630 / defence 1.501 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.888 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.277. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. CSKA Moscow's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Torpedo Moskva games / 39 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 15% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 57%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 6.67 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 1.75. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Torpedo Moskva 75% | CSKA Moscow 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Luzhniki • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 15% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Torpedo Moskva 0.79 / CSKA Moscow 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.630 / def 1.501 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.888 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.70
CSKA Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadion Luzhniki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow?
Torpedo Moskva 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Luzhniki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 15% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torpedo Moskva's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.89x) against Torpedo Moskva's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
15%
6.51
27%
3.64
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.49
1.70
CSKA Moscow xG
6.51
15%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
3%
35.65
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.0 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.70 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Torpedo Moskva have picked up 0.11 PPG on a 0W 1D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torpedo Moskva is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 6W 2D 1L from 9 games, 2.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 2.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torpedo Moskva.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torpedo Moskva have posted 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 2.33 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 games (0.11 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torpedo Moskva at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torpedo Moskva at home: 0.00 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Torpedo Moskva or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torpedo Moskva have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Torpedo Moskva
0
Draws
1
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when CSKA Moscow 3-0 Torpedo Moskva.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torpedo Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 75%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Torpedo Moskva and 50% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Torpedo Moskva's games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Torpedo Moskva's matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Torpedo Moskva and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torpedo Moskva defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torpedo Moskva beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Stadion Luzhniki, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 0.79 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.70 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.63 / defence 1.50 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.89 / defence 0.75, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 15% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 57%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Torpedo Moskva win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 44%, CSKA Moscow 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.11. Form was overturned, with Torpedo Moskva winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Torpedo Moskva (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.