Spartak Moscow 3-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lukoil Arena.
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Spartak Moscow, 2 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 62% and Krylia Sovetov 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 57% | Krylia Sovetov 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.022 / defence 0.963 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.091 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.048. Data: 47 Spartak Moscow games / 47 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 26%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Krylia Sovetov 3.85. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 50% | Krylia Sovetov 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.56 / Krylia Sovetov 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.022 / def 0.963 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.091 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Krylia Sovetov xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow 3 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 47% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (5 meetings): Spartak Moscow 3W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 2W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.02x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.78
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.66
1.10
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.10 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 12D 12L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.30 PPG from 47 outings (16W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 14W 7D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.45 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Krylia Sovetov in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.13 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 56%, Krylia Sovetov 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Spartak Moscow and 70% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Spartak Moscow's games and 70% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 70% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 3-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.10 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 26%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 57%, Krylia Sovetov 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.