Spartak Moscow 5-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khimki make the trip to Otkritie Bank Arena to face Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Spartak Moscow (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Otkritie Bank Arena, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khimki's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Spartak Moscow. A 1.40 PPG lead over Khimki (1.90 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Khimki in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spartak Moscow lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Khimki winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Spartak Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Khimki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 65% and Khimki 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 54% | Khimki 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 2.62 xG and Khimki 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.294 / defence 0.942 | Khimki attack 0.895 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.298. Spartak Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Spartak Moscow games / 43 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 68% | Draw 19% | Khimki 12%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Khimki 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Spartak Moscow (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Khimki 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 68% | Draw 19% | Khimki 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 63% | xG Spartak Moscow 2.62 / Khimki 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.294 / def 0.942 | Khimki attack 0.895 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Khimki xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Khimki kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Khimki kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Spartak Moscow 5 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Khimki part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 68% chance of winning, Khimki a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Khimki?
Record (2 meetings): Spartak Moscow 1W | Draws 0 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Khimki in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Khimki (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (1.29) and Khimki's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khimki's attack (0.90x) against Spartak Moscow's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.16
12%
8.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.71
1.09
Khimki xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
8.23
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
7%
13.72
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
1%
112.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.09 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 18W 10D 15L from 43 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 20L across 43 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khimki heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khimki's away record stands at 3W 3D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Khimki in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 18W 10D 15L in their last 43 games (1.49 PPG), while Khimki have gone 9W 14D 20L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Khimki away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.75 PPG; Khimki away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spartak Moscow won 5-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spartak Moscow have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khimki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Khimki have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Spartak Moscow 5-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Khimki?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Spartak Moscow, 60% for Khimki — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Spartak Moscow and 65% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Khimki?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Spartak Moscow's games and 60% of Khimki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 65% of Khimki's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Khimki tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Khimki in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Khimki 5-0 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.62 xG and Khimki 1.09 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khimki landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.29 / defence 0.94 against Khimki attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 68% | Draw 19% | Khimki 12%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 54%, Khimki 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Khimki's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.