Spartak Moscow 1-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow host FC Rostov at Otkrytiye Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow's home record at Otkrytiye Arena: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Premier League appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Rostov have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Rostov have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spartak Moscow at 1.40 PPG versus FC Rostov's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spartak Moscow register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, FC Rostov in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 50% and FC Rostov 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 42% | FC Rostov 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.80 xG and FC Rostov 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.064 / defence 1.210 | FC Rostov attack 1.097 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.139. FC Rostov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Spartak Moscow games / 12 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 33%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | FC Rostov 3.03. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 67% | FC Rostov 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Otkrytiye Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.80 / FC Rostov 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.064 / def 1.210 | FC Rostov attack 1.097 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Rostov xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Otkrytiye Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Spartak Moscow 1 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Otkrytiye Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 45% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.06x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.40
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.32
1.51
FC Rostov xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.51 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 6L across 12 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Rostov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.58 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or FC Rostov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Spartak Moscow won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
4
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, FC Rostov have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FC Rostov 1-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spartak Moscow at 67%, FC Rostov at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Spartak Moscow and 67% for FC Rostov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spartak Moscow's games and 100% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 67% of FC Rostov's.
Do Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Otkrytiye Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.80 xG and FC Rostov 1.51 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against FC Rostov attack 1.10 / defence 1.42, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 33%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 42%, FC Rostov 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Rostov's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.