Spartak Moscow 0-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Spartak Moscow host CSKA Moscow at Otkrytiye Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Spartak Moscow — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Spartak Moscow at Otkrytiye Arena this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spartak Moscow at 1.30 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Spartak Moscow have won 0, CSKA Moscow 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Spartak Moscow trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

CSKA Moscow trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 61% versus CSKA Moscow 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spartak Moscow 44% | CSKA Moscow 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.008 / defence 1.149 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.863 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.101. Data: 18 Spartak Moscow games / 18 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 40% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spartak Moscow 78% | CSKA Moscow 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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