Rubin 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dinamo Makhachkala at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ak Bars Arena plays host to Rubin versus Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rubin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rubin's home record at Ak Bars Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ak Bars Arena.
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Rubin, 1.70 for Dinamo Makhachkala — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rubin 3W, Dinamo Makhachkala 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Dinamo Makhachkala winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 43% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rubin 37% | Dinamo Makhachkala 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.44 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.956 / defence 1.069 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.217 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.283. Dinamo Makhachkala have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Rubin games / 35 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 32% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 41%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Dinamo Makhachkala 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Dinamo Makhachkala as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dinamo Makhachkala if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 50% | Dinamo Makhachkala 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 32% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Rubin 1.44 / Dinamo Makhachkala 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.956 / def 1.069 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.217 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Dinamo Makhachkala (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Rubin 3 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 32% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dinamo Makhachkala the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Record (4 meetings): Rubin 3W | Draws 0 | Dinamo Makhachkala 1W.
What form are Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rubin's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Dinamo Makhachkala's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (1.22x) against Rubin's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dinamo Makhachkala Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.72
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rubin xG
Total xG
3.11
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rubin and 1.67 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rubin come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 13D 10L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (10W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rubin against 1.14 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rubin's home form reads 7W 7D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.86 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Early Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 12W 13D 10L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Rubin's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.65 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Rubin or Dinamo Makhachkala been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dinamo Makhachkala in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Rubin
0
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 5 meetings on record, Rubin have won 4, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Rubin 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 41%, Dinamo Makhachkala 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rubin) and 41% (Dinamo Makhachkala).
On the defensive side: Rubin keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Rubin have failed to score in 29% of games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Rubin's recent matches and 53% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rubin's recent games and 41% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.44 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.67 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 32% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 41%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 37%, Dinamo Makhachkala 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.40 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.