Rubin 3-0 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rubin face Akron.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Akron travel to Ak Bars Arena to take on Rubin in Premier League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rubin stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Rubin at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Akron have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Akron's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across their last 9 road games (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rubin 1.20 PPG, Akron 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Rubin have won 1, Akron 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2024, ended Rubin 2–1 Akron — a Rubin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rubin in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Akron in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 53% versus Akron 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 41% | Akron 59%). Note also that Akron surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Rubin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.51 xG and Akron 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.870 / defence 1.129 | Akron attack 0.804 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.282. Akron's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rubin's projected output up. Data: built from Rubin's last 45 games and Akron's last 15.
Result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 33% | Akron 26%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.40 | Draw 3.07 | Akron 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rubin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rubin's last 10 home games and Akron's last 9 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rubin 50% (last 10 home games) | Akron 33% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 33% | Akron 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Rubin 1.51 / Akron 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.870 / def 1.129 | Akron attack 0.804 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Rubin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Akron xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rubin vs Akron FAQs
What time does Rubin vs Akron kick off?
Rubin vs Akron kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Akron?
Rubin 3 - 0 Akron.
Where is Rubin vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Akron part of?
Rubin vs Akron is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 42% chance of winning, Akron a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rubin and Akron will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rubin vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rubin's attack rating (0.87) and Akron's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akron's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rubin's last 45 games and Akron's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.07
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.67
1.16
Akron xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rubin vs Akron Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rubin and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rubin and 1.16 for Akron, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rubin come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 5D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Akron sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rubin on 1.18 PPG, Akron on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rubin's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across their last 9 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 9 away games (3W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rubin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.29 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Akron in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Akron
Blended
Rubin (Home) vs Akron (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rubin
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Rubin vs Akron Form FAQs
What form are Rubin and Akron in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Akron have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Akron away?
Akron's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.00 PPG; Akron away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rubin or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Akron in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2024, when Rubin won Rubin 3-0 Akron.
Rubin's record when hosting Akron specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Rubin
2
Draws
0
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Rubin vs Akron H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akron?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Rubin have won 3, Akron have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Akron last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Akron 1-2 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Akron?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Akron see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 44%, Akron 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rubin) and 44% (Akron).
On the defensive side: Akron in 44%; Rubin have failed to score in 33% of games; Akron in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rubin vs Akron Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rubin and Akron matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rubin's recent matches and 33% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rubin and Akron matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rubin's recent games and 44% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Akron matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Rubin's recent matches and 44% of Akron's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rubin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Akron 3-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.51 xG and Akron 1.16 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akron landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Akron attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 42% | Draw 33% | Akron 26%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 41%, Akron 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Akron's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.18 PPG, Akron 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Akron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.