Rubin 1-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Rubin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Ak Bars Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ak Bars Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rubin are significantly better at Ak Bars Arena than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Rubin against 1.00 for Akhmat. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Rubin, who have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Akhmat — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Rubin winning.
The historical record gives Rubin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Akhmat — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 49% versus Akhmat 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 51% | Akhmat 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.31 xG and Akhmat 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.844 / defence 0.948 | Akhmat attack 0.947 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.091. Data: 45 Rubin games / 45 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 26%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Akhmat 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rubin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 30% | Akhmat 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Rubin 1.31 / Akhmat 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.844 / def 0.948 | Akhmat attack 0.947 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Rubin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Akhmat xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Akhmat kick off?
Rubin vs Akhmat kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Akhmat?
Rubin 1 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Rubin vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Akhmat part of?
Rubin vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 42% chance of winning, Akhmat a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rubin and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akhmat?
Record (7 meetings): Rubin 6W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Rubin and Akhmat in?
Rubin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rubin's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.95x) against Rubin's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.10
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.29
0.98
Akhmat xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rubin and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Rubin and 0.98 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Rubin have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 18W 11D 16L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat's form line: 9W 15D 21L from 45 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rubin are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Akhmat.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rubin have posted 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Rubin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Akhmat have gone 2W 7D 14L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.07 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Akhmat away?
Rubin's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.87 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rubin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Rubin
0
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akhmat?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 7, Akhmat have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Rubin 1-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Akhmat?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 35%, Akhmat 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rubin) and 52% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Rubin keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rubin have failed to score in 26% of games; Akhmat in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Rubin's recent matches and 56% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rubin's recent games and 52% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Akhmat tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Akhmat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Akhmat 1-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.31 xG and Akhmat 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Akhmat landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 42% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 26%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 51%, Akhmat 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.