FC Sochi 1-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host Krylia Sovetov at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sochi — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Sochi are significantly better at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Sochi 1.40 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Krylia Sovetov have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against FC Sochi's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
It is worth noting that Krylia Sovetov have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
FC Sochi in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 53% versus Krylia Sovetov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 67% | Krylia Sovetov 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.76 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 0.989 / defence 1.101 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.807 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.312. Data: 51 FC Sochi games / 51 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 51% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Krylia Sovetov 4.00. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Sochi 70% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 51% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Sochi 1.76 / Krylia Sovetov 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 0.989 / def 1.101 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.807 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Krylia Sovetov xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Sochi 1 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 51% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (3 meetings): FC Sochi 0W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sochi's attack rating (0.99) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.26
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.93
1.17
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.17 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sochi come into this having played 51 games, going 26W 9D 16L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (17W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sochi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Sochi's home form reads 14W 6D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (8W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sochi are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 26W 9D 16L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Sochi's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 1.92 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sochi's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
FC Sochi
0
Draws
7
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC Sochi 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 60%, Krylia Sovetov 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Sochi and 52% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sochi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Sochi's games and 52% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Sochi's matches and 52% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Sochi 1-2 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.76 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 51% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 25%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 67%, Krylia Sovetov 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.