FC Sochi 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host Krylia Sovetov at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sochi — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi at Fisht Olympic Stadium this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Sochi 0.70 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Krylia Sovetov have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 7 encounters against FC Sochi's 0 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
It is worth noting that Krylia Sovetov have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
FC Sochi in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 56% versus Krylia Sovetov 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 67% | Krylia Sovetov 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 0.738 / defence 1.426 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.754 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.101. FC Sochi's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing FC Sochi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 FC Sochi games / 55 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Krylia Sovetov 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC Sochi 50% | Krylia Sovetov 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Fisht Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Sochi 1.48 / Krylia Sovetov 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 0.738 / def 1.426 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.754 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Krylia Sovetov xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 15:30 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Sochi 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 44% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (7 meetings): FC Sochi 0W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 7W.
What form are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sochi's attack rating (0.74) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.89
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.19 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sochi come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 3D 19L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sochi on 0.67 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Sochi's home form reads 1W 2D 10L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sochi are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.00 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 5W 3D 19L in their last 27 games (0.67 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 9D 13L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Sochi's home record (0.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 0.38 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sochi's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
FC Sochi
0
Draws
7
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC Sochi 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Sochi and 62% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sochi have failed to score in 46% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Sochi's matches and 62% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Sochi edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sochi beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.74 / defence 1.43 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.75 / defence 1.38, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 67%, Krylia Sovetov 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.67 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.