FC Sochi 1-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Sochi face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host FC Krasnodar at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 10:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Sochi have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Fisht Olympic Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. FC Krasnodar's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of FC Sochi's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
FC Krasnodar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 7 encounters against FC Sochi's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–5 with FC Krasnodar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Krasnodar have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Sochi in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 64% versus FC Krasnodar 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 73% | FC Krasnodar 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.09 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 0.797 / defence 1.509 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.124 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.070. FC Sochi's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 FC Sochi games / 50 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 23% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | FC Krasnodar 1.85. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sochi 50% | FC Krasnodar 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Fisht Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 10:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 23% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Sochi 1.09 / FC Krasnodar 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 0.797 / def 1.509 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.124 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.81
FC Krasnodar xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 10:45 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
FC Sochi 1 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
What competition is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar part of?
FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 23% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
Record (7 meetings): FC Sochi 0W | Draws 0 | FC Krasnodar 7W.
What form are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sochi's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
23%
4.42
23%
4.35
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.90
1.81
FC Krasnodar xG
4.42
23%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
4%
27.10
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.81 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, FC Sochi have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 3W 3D 16L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 15W 4D 3L from 22 games, 2.23 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 1.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sochi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Sochi have posted 0.50 PPG from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sochi are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 2.05 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sochi have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 15W 4D 3L in their last 22 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 0.50 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.90 PPG.
Have FC Sochi or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sochi have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when FC Krasnodar won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sochi's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC Sochi
0
Draws
8
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Sochi 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 50%, FC Krasnodar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC Sochi) and 40% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 50%; FC Sochi have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 50% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of FC Sochi's recent games and 40% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out FC Sochi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 1-2 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.09 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.81 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.80 / defence 1.51 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 23% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 54%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 73%, FC Krasnodar 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.