Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar meet at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FC Krasnodar are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nizhny Novgorod, 1 for FC Krasnodar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 56% versus FC Krasnodar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 51% | FC Krasnodar 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.45 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.859 / defence 1.327 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.108 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.281. Data: 43 Nizhny Novgorod games / 43 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 28% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 46%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | FC Krasnodar 2.17. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 50% | FC Krasnodar 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 28% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.45 / FC Krasnodar 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.859 / def 1.327 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.108 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.88
FC Krasnodar xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 28% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
Record (2 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.11x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.79
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
3.33
1.88
FC Krasnodar xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
4%
23.70
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.88 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Nizhny Novgorod have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 13D 19L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 20W 11D 12L from 43 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nizhny Novgorod.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 0.81 PPG from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 8W 7D 6L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.56 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.81 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 5-0 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
9
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 57%, FC Krasnodar 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 52% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 62% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 52% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.45 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.88 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.86 / defence 1.33 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 28% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 46%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 51%, FC Krasnodar 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.