Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Nizhny Novgorod plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus FC Rostov in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Nizhny Novgorod have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nizhny Novgorod's home record at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.00 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nizhny Novgorod lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Rostov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 40% versus FC Rostov 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 51% | FC Rostov 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 2.35 xG and FC Rostov 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.968 / defence 0.884 | FC Rostov attack 0.850 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.219. FC Rostov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Nizhny Novgorod's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Nizhny Novgorod games / 35 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 67% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 11%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | FC Rostov 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Nizhny Novgorod (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Nizhny Novgorod 30% | FC Rostov 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 67% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 2.35 / FC Rostov 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.968 / def 0.884 | FC Rostov attack 0.850 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Rostov xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 0 FC Rostov.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 67% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
Record (4 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 0 | FC Rostov 3W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.85x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
67%
1.50
23%
4.42
11%
9.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
3.26
0.92
FC Rostov xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
9.48
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
99.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.92 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 7D 18L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Rostov sit at 1.71 PPG from 35 outings (17W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Rostov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nizhny Novgorod's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Rostov have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 10W 7D 18L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.24 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Rostov go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
7
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 2, FC Rostov have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 41%, FC Rostov 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 65% (FC Rostov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 71% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Nizhny Novgorod's matches and 65% of FC Rostov's.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nizhny Novgorod edge out FC Rostov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat FC Rostov 1-0 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 2.35 xG and FC Rostov 0.92 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Rostov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against FC Rostov attack 0.85 / defence 1.43, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 67% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 11%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 51%, FC Rostov 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Rostov's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Nizhny Novgorod winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.