Nizhny Novgorod 2-6 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nizhny Novgorod face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Nizhny Novgorod plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.90 PPG clear of Nizhny Novgorod in recent Premier League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nizhny Novgorod lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 43% versus CSKA Moscow 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 47% | CSKA Moscow 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.54 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.996 / defence 1.243 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.158 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.283. Data: 58 Nizhny Novgorod games / 58 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 32% | Draw 22% | CSKA Moscow 45%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | CSKA Moscow 2.22. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 50% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 32% | Draw 22% | CSKA Moscow 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.54 / CSKA Moscow 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.996 / def 1.243 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.158 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.85
CSKA Moscow xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 2 - 6 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 32% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 3W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 1.00x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.16x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
32%
3.09
22%
4.46
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
3.38
1.85
CSKA Moscow xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
5%
19.56
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.85 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 17W 11D 30L from 58 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 27W 19D 12L across 58 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 12W 6D 11L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 9W 11D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.79 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 17W 11D 30L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 27W 19D 12L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.45 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
CSKA Moscow go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 2-6 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
8
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 45%, CSKA Moscow 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 55% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 62% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 55% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-6 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.54 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.85 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.85 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.16 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 32% | Draw 22% | CSKA Moscow 45%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 47%, CSKA Moscow 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.