Krylia Sovetov 1-5 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Solidarnost Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 2W 4D 4L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Krylia Sovetov, 2 for Zenit and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Zenit winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus Zenit 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 44% | Zenit 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.65 xG and Zenit 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.667 / defence 0.813 | Zenit attack 0.886 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.394. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zenit's defence strength of 0.652 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Krylia Sovetov games / 54 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 22% | Draw 36% | Zenit 42%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | Zenit 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Krylia Sovetov's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Zenit 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 22% | Draw 36% | Zenit 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.65 / Zenit 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.667 / def 0.813 | Zenit attack 0.886 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Zenit (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Zenit xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 5 Zenit.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 22% chance of winning, Zenit a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 1 | Zenit 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Zenit (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.67) and Zenit's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
22%
4.54
36%
2.77
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
1.65
1.00
Zenit xG
4.54
22%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.00 for Zenit, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 18W 12D 24L from 54 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 5L across 54 games — 2.28 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 12W 11D 3L across 26 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.33 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Zenit have gone 37W 12D 5L in their last 54 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.35 PPG; Zenit away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Zenit in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zenit see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 46%, Zenit 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Krylia Sovetov and 31% for Zenit.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zenit in 42%; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 31% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 1-5 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.65 xG and Zenit 1.00 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.67 / defence 0.81 against Zenit attack 0.89 / defence 0.65, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 22% | Draw 36% | Zenit 42%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 44%, Zenit 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.