Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Torpedo Moskva – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva meet at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's home record at Solidarnost Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Torpedo Moskva have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Premier League outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Torpedo Moskva have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Krylia Sovetov's 1.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Torpedo Moskva's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.47 xG and Torpedo Moskva 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.018 / defence 0.970 | Torpedo Moskva attack 0.687 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.284. Torpedo Moskva bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Krylia Sovetov games / 2 Torpedo Moskva games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 72% | Draw 18% | Torpedo Moskva 10%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Torpedo Moskva 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 72% | Draw 18% | Torpedo Moskva 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 53% | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.47 / Torpedo Moskva 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.018 / def 0.970 | Torpedo Moskva attack 0.687 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Torpedo Moskva xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Torpedo Moskva.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 72% chance of winning, Torpedo Moskva a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.02x the league average against Torpedo Moskva's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Torpedo Moskva's attack (0.69x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.61
10%
9.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.32
0.85
Torpedo Moskva xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
9.76
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
8%
11.78
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
114.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.85 for Torpedo Moskva, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torpedo Moskva's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torpedo Moskva.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Torpedo Moskva are on 0.50 scored and 3.50 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Torpedo Moskva
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Torpedo Moskva have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
0
Torpedo Moskva
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva?
From 2 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when Torpedo Moskva 0-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Torpedo Moskva away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Torpedo Moskva?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Torpedo Moskva's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 100% of Torpedo Moskva's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Torpedo Moskva in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov and Torpedo Moskva finished level at 1-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.47 xG and Torpedo Moskva 0.85 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Torpedo Moskva attack 0.69 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 72% | Draw 18% | Torpedo Moskva 10%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 100%, Torpedo Moskva 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Torpedo Moskva conceded 1 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.