Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Samara Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 5W 4D 1L at Samara Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Krylia Sovetov 1.30 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Spartak Moscow, who boast 7 victories compared to 3 for Krylia Sovetov.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Spartak Moscow have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Spartak Moscow trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 48% versus Spartak Moscow 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 42% | Spartak Moscow 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.987 / defence 1.016 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.075 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.292. Data: 33 Krylia Sovetov games / 33 Spartak Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 34% | Spartak Moscow 38%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Spartak Moscow 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spartak Moscow are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Spartak Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 34% | Spartak Moscow 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.20 / Spartak Moscow 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.987 / def 1.016 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.075 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Samara Arena.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Record (10 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 3W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 7W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.99x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
28%
3.55
34%
2.97
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.61
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.41 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 10D 15L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 17W 7D 9L from 33 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.61 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 17W 7D 9L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.69 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Spartak Moscow 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Krylia Sovetov) and 56% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Spartak Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 69% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 56% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.