Krylia Sovetov 4-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Spartak Moscow travel to Solidarnost Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Krylia Sovetov have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Spartak Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Krylia Sovetov are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 70% of Spartak Moscow's (from Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Spartak Moscow's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Spartak Moscow 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Spartak Moscow — a Krylia Sovetov win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (last 39 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow trading profile (last 39 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 64% and Spartak Moscow 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 59% | Spartak Moscow 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.23 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.267 / defence 1.049 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.165 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.150. Krylia Sovetov carry an above-average attack rating of 1.267 — their 2.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 39 games and Spartak Moscow's last 39.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 20% | Spartak Moscow 24%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.78 | Draw 4.97 | Spartak Moscow 4.23. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Spartak Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 home games) | Spartak Moscow 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 20% | Spartak Moscow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.23 / Spartak Moscow 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.267 / def 1.049 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.165 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 4 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 56% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.27x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 39 games and Spartak Moscow's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.97
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.64
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
3%
39.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.41 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 13W 11D 15L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 20W 10D 9L from 39 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 18 home games (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 4D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.90 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 64%.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Spartak Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.67 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 4-0 Spartak Moscow.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
6
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, Spartak Moscow 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Krylia Sovetov) and 56% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 72% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 56% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 94% of Spartak Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Spartak Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 4-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.23 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spartak Moscow landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.27 / defence 1.05 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.17 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 20% | Spartak Moscow 24%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 59%, Spartak Moscow 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.