Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 5W 3D 2L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Krasnodar are 0.50 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 1W, FC Krasnodar 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 48% versus FC Krasnodar 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 39% | FC Krasnodar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.06 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.984 / defence 1.223 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.966 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.200. Data: 24 Krylia Sovetov games / 23 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 44%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | FC Krasnodar 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | FC Krasnodar 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.06 / FC Krasnodar 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.984 / def 1.223 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.966 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC Krasnodar xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 27% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | FC Krasnodar 0W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (0.97x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
27%
3.72
29%
3.43
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.48
1.42
FC Krasnodar xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
15.37
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.42 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 5D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.70 for FC Krasnodar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.52 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.64 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 0-6 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
5
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 46%, FC Krasnodar 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Krylia Sovetov) and 46% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 64% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 46% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Krasnodar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Krasnodar 2-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.06 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.42 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Krasnodar landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against FC Krasnodar attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 44%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 39%, FC Krasnodar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.52 PPG, FC Krasnodar 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.