Krylia Sovetov 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 2L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.50 for CSKA Moscow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 50% versus CSKA Moscow 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 44% | CSKA Moscow 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.53 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.084 / defence 1.040 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.838 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.136. Data: 16 Krylia Sovetov games / 16 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 48% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 23%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 4.35. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 43% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 48% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.53 / CSKA Moscow 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.084 / def 1.040 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.838 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.99
CSKA Moscow xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 48% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.08x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.84x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.50
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.52
0.99
CSKA Moscow xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.99 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 7W 3D 6L from 16 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 6L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.50 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; CSKA Moscow in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.86 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
4
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 43%, CSKA Moscow 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Krylia Sovetov) and 43% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 43% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 43% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.53 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.99 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 48% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 23%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a CSKA Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 44%, CSKA Moscow 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.50 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.