Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula meet at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's home record at Solidarnost Arena: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Premier League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Arsenal Tula's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Krylia Sovetov's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Arsenal Tula's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Arsenal Tula and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Arsenal Tula winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Arsenal Tula — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 44% versus Arsenal Tula 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 39% | Arsenal Tula 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.81 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.010 / defence 1.014 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.727 / defence 1.559. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.122. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.559 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Krylia Sovetov games / 19 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 61% | Draw 23% | Arsenal Tula 16%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Arsenal Tula 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 33% | Arsenal Tula 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 61% | Draw 23% | Arsenal Tula 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.81 / Arsenal Tula 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.010 / def 1.014 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.727 / def 1.559 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Arsenal Tula xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 2 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 61% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 0 | Arsenal Tula 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.01x the league average against Arsenal Tula's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arsenal Tula's attack (0.73x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.35
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.64
0.83
Arsenal Tula xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
3%
37.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.83 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 3D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Arsenal Tula — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (2W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula in 61%.
Defensively: Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.78 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Arsenal Tula been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Arsenal Tula in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
1
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, Arsenal Tula have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula?
Arsenal Tula have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 33%, Arsenal Tula 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Krylia Sovetov) and 67% (Arsenal Tula).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Arsenal Tula in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Arsenal Tula?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 56% of Arsenal Tula's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 67% of Arsenal Tula's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov and Arsenal Tula finished level at 2-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.81 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.83 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arsenal Tula outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.73 / defence 1.56, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 61% | Draw 23% | Arsenal Tula 16%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 39%, Arsenal Tula 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.