Khimki 1-3 Zenit – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zenit at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Khimki plays host to Khimki versus Zenit in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 24 July 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.32 xG and Zenit 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Zenit attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 2.046. Data: 0 Khimki games / 0 Zenit games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khimki 22% | Draw 27% | Zenit 50%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Zenit 2.00. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 22% | Draw 27% | Zenit 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Khimki 1.32 / Zenit 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Zenit attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.350 / away 2.046 • Poisson stance: Zenit (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Zenit xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Zenit kick off?
Khimki vs Zenit kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Zenit?
Khimki 1 - 3 Zenit.
Where is Khimki vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Zenit part of?
Khimki vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 22% chance of winning, Zenit a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Khimki and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Zenit?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and Zenit in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Khimki's attack rating (0.85) and Zenit's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (0.85x) against Khimki's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
22%
4.49
27%
3.65
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Khimki xG
Total xG
3.32
2.00
Zenit xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
3%
33.19
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Khimki and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Khimki and 2.00 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Pre-Season
Zenit
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Khimki
2
Draws
4
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Zenit?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, Zenit have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Zenit 1-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.32 xG and Zenit 2.00 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 2.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Zenit attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 22% | Draw 27% | Zenit 50%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.