Khimki 1-3 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Khimki plays host to Khimki versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Khimki have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Spartak Moscow (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Spartak Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Spartak Moscow are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Khimki, 2 for Spartak Moscow and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Khimki 1–1 Spartak Moscow — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.99 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.821 / defence 1.098 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.782 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.455. Spartak Moscow's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Data: built from Khimki's last 1 games and Spartak Moscow's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 40%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.74 | Draw 2.99 | Spartak Moscow 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Khimki's last 1 games and Spartak Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Khimki 1 games, Spartak Moscow 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Khimki 0.99 / Spartak Moscow 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.821 / def 1.098 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.782 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Spartak Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khimki vs Spartak Moscow FAQs
What time does Khimki vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Khimki vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Khimki 1 - 3 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Khimki vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Khimki vs Spartak Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 27% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Khimki and Spartak Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Khimki vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.82x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (0.78x) against Khimki's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Khimki's last 1 games and Spartak Moscow's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
27%
3.74
33%
2.99
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.24
1.25
Spartak Moscow xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khimki vs Spartak Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Khimki and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Khimki and 1.25 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khimki's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Khimki by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spartak Moscow heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Khimki are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 0%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Khimki (Home) vs Spartak Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khimki
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Khimki vs Spartak Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Khimki and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Khimki and Spartak Moscow, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Spartak Moscow have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spartak Moscow won Spartak Moscow 5-0 Khimki on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Khimki vs Spartak Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Spartak Moscow?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Khimki have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Khimki and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2025: Spartak Moscow 5-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khimki vs Spartak Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khimki and Spartak Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Khimki's recent matches and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Khimki and Spartak Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Khimki's recent games and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Spartak Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Khimki's recent matches and 0% of Spartak Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.99 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.25 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 40%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 0%, Spartak Moscow 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Khimki arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Spartak Moscow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khimki shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.