Khimki 0-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host Krylia Sovetov at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's home record at Arena Khimki: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Khimki are significantly better at Arena Khimki than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khimki at 1.00 PPG versus Krylia Sovetov's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khimki register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Krylia Sovetov in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khimki, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with Khimki winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 55% versus Krylia Sovetov 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 58% | Krylia Sovetov 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.46 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.947 / defence 1.142 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.101 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.316. Data: 38 Khimki games / 38 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 33% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 41%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Krylia Sovetov 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 60% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 33% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Khimki 1.46 / Krylia Sovetov 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.947 / def 1.142 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.101 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Krylia Sovetov xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Khimki 0 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 33% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Khimki and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in?
Khimki (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khimki's attack rating (0.95) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.80
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Khimki xG
Total xG
3.12
1.66
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Khimki and 1.66 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khimki come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 12D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (14W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 1.03 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khimki's home form reads 6W 9D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Khimki's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.42 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
3
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 58%, Krylia Sovetov 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Khimki) and 53% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 26% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Khimki's games and 58% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Khimki's recent games and 53% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khimki's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 0-0 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.46 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.66 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khimki fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 33% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 41%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 58%, Krylia Sovetov 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 1.03 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.