FC UFA 0-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC UFA at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC UFA vs Ural fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BetBoom Аrena plays host to FC UFA versus Ural in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC UFA's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC UFA's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at BetBoom Аrena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ural (all games): 1W 3D 5L across 9 Premier League outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ural have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.89 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
FC UFA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games.
Ural goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC UFA 78% versus Ural 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC UFA 56% | Ural 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC UFA 1.79 xG and Ural 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC UFA attack 1.152 / defence 1.405 | Ural attack 0.567 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.137. Ural bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing FC UFA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 FC UFA games / 9 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC UFA 57% | Draw 25% | Ural 18%. Fair-value odds: FC UFA 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Ural 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC UFA (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC UFA as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC UFA 100% | Ural 0%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC UFA vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: BetBoom Аrena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC UFA 57% | Draw 25% | Ural 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG FC UFA 1.79 / Ural 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC UFA attack 1.152 / def 1.405 | Ural attack 0.567 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: FC UFA (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC UFA xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ural xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC UFA vs Ural kick off?
FC UFA vs Ural kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at BetBoom Аrena.
What was the final score in FC UFA vs Ural?
FC UFA 0 - 1 Ural.
Where is FC UFA vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at BetBoom Аrena.
What competition is FC UFA vs Ural part of?
FC UFA vs Ural is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC UFA vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives FC UFA a 57% chance of winning, Ural a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC UFA the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC UFA vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC UFA and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will FC UFA vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC UFA and Ural in?
FC UFA (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ural (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC UFA's attack rating (1.15) and Ural's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.57x) against FC UFA's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC UFA Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.02
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC UFA xG
Total xG
2.70
0.91
Ural xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
33.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC UFA vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC UFA and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC UFA and 0.91 for Ural, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FC UFA vs Ural?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, FC UFA have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for FC UFA against 0.67 for Ural. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC UFA have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — FC UFA are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ural have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ural's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC UFA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC UFA are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Ural in 22%.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC UFA
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC UFA and Ural in coming into this match?
FC UFA have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Ural have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC UFA at home or Ural away?
FC UFA's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC UFA at home: 1.33 PPG; Ural away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC UFA
0
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and Ural?
From 2 meetings on record, FC UFA have won 0, Ural have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC UFA and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Ural 2-1 FC UFA.
Who has won more matches between FC UFA and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC UFA 100%, Ural 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC UFA) and 33% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC UFA home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC UFA play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of FC UFA's recent matches and 0% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC UFA vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC UFA's recent games and 33% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC UFA and Ural tend to score early?
FC UFA have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ural in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ural defy the odds to beat FC UFA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat FC UFA 0-1 at BetBoom Аrena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC UFA 1.79 xG and Ural 0.91 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC UFA fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC UFA attack 1.15 / defence 1.41 against Ural attack 0.57 / defence 1.48, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC UFA 57% | Draw 25% | Ural 18%, with FC UFA to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Ural win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC UFA 56%, Ural 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC UFA's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Ural's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC UFA 0.89 PPG, Ural 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. FC UFA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Ural (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.