FC Rostov 1-5 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Rostov face Spartak Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Spartak Moscow travel to Rostov Arena to take on FC Rostov in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Rostov stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, FC Rostov have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Rostov 1.80 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, FC Rostov have won 2, Spartak Moscow 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended FC Rostov 1–2 Spartak Moscow — a Spartak Moscow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 66% and Spartak Moscow 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 64% | Spartak Moscow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.42 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.155 / defence 0.929 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.845 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.237. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 53 games and Spartak Moscow's last 53.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 46% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.15 | Draw 3.50 | Spartak Moscow 4.02. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 50% (last 10 home games) | Spartak Moscow 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 46% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Rostov 1.42 / Spartak Moscow 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.155 / def 0.929 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.845 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Spartak Moscow xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow?
FC Rostov 1 - 5 Spartak Moscow.
Where is FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 46% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Rostov's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 53 games and Spartak Moscow's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.50
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.39
0.97
Spartak Moscow xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.97 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 24W 15D 14L from 53 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 14L across 53 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Rostov on 1.64 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 15W 7D 4L from their last 26 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.68 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov (Home) vs Spartak Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 24W 15D 14L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
FC Rostov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 2.00 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2024, when Spartak Moscow won FC Rostov 1-5 Spartak Moscow.
FC Rostov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
3
Draws
5
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Rostov have won 2, Spartak Moscow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Spartak Moscow 3-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Rostov at 69%, Spartak Moscow at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC Rostov and 50% for Spartak Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Rostov's games and 62% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Rostov's matches and 50% of Spartak Moscow's.
Do FC Rostov and Spartak Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 81% of Spartak Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 1-5 hammering of FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat FC Rostov 1-5 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.42 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.97 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Spartak Moscow outscored their 0.97 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 46% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 25%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Spartak Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 64%, Spartak Moscow 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.64 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.