Fakel 1-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fakel at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Khimki at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel at Stadion Fakel this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Fakel. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fakel at 1.00 PPG versus Khimki's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fakel have won 0, Khimki 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fakel in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Khimki in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 38% versus Khimki 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 38% | Khimki 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.23 xG and Khimki 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.671 / defence 0.705 | Khimki attack 0.691 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.310. Fakel's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Fakel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fakel's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Fakel games / 13 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 47% | Draw 36% | Khimki 16%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.13 | Draw 2.78 | Khimki 6.25. Fakel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fakel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 20% | Khimki 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 47% | Draw 36% | Khimki 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Fakel 1.23 / Khimki 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.671 / def 0.705 | Khimki attack 0.691 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Fakel (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Khimki xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Khimki kick off?
Fakel vs Khimki kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Khimki?
Fakel 1 - 1 Khimki.
Where is Fakel vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Khimki part of?
Fakel vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 47% chance of winning, Khimki a 16% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Fakel and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Khimki?
Record (2 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 2 | Khimki 0W.
What form are Fakel and Khimki in?
Fakel (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Khimki (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fakel vs Khimki?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.67) and Khimki's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
47%
2.11
36%
2.74
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.87
0.64
Khimki xG
2.11
47%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
5%
21.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Fakel and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fakel and 0.64 for Khimki, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fakel come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 5D 6L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fakel on 0.85 PPG, Khimki on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fakel's home form reads 1W 4D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Fakel are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.08 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Khimki in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Khimki away?
Fakel's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.17 PPG; Khimki away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Fakel or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Khimki in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fakel and Khimki runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fakel's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fakel
3
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Khimki?
From 4 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Khimki have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Khimki 1-0 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Khimki?
Khimki have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fakel tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fakel 17% BTTS, Khimki 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Fakel and 67% for Khimki.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 67% of games; Khimki in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Fakel's recent matches and 33% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Fakel's recent games and 67% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Khimki tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Khimki in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Khimki share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 14, as Fakel and Khimki drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.23 xG and Khimki 0.64 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.67 / defence 0.70 against Khimki attack 0.69 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 47% | Draw 36% | Khimki 16%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 38%, Khimki 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 0.85 PPG, Khimki 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khimki (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.