Dynamo 2-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo host CSKA Moscow at VTB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo's home record at VTB Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Dynamo) versus 1.60 (CSKA Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dynamo, 1 for CSKA Moscow and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo 61% versus CSKA Moscow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 54% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.52 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.182 / defence 0.942 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.288. CSKA Moscow's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Dynamo games / 46 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 46% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 26%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | CSKA Moscow 3.85. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo 60% | CSKA Moscow 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 46% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dynamo 1.52 / CSKA Moscow 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.182 / def 0.942 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
CSKA Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Dynamo 2 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 46% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dynamo and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Dynamo 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 1W.
What form are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow in?
Dynamo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dynamo's attack rating (1.18) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.53
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.62
1.10
CSKA Moscow xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.10 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Dynamo have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 23W 10D 13L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 23W 10D 13L from 46 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dynamo on 1.72 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dynamo have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 9W 5D 9L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.54 scored and 0.98 conceded. Dynamo's scoring rate against CSKA Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Dynamo's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.78 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Dynamo or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dynamo
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 5, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-4 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 56%, CSKA Moscow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dynamo) and 44% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 30%; CSKA Moscow in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dynamo's recent matches and 48% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dynamo's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out CSKA Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat CSKA Moscow 2-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.52 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 46% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 54%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dynamo 1.72 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.