CSKA Moscow 6-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow at VEB Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Rubin have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 0.90 PPG lead over Rubin (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — CSKA Moscow lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Rubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Rubin half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 33% versus Rubin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 33% | Rubin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.24 xG and Rubin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.874 / defence 0.907 | Rubin attack 0.925 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.215. Rubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing CSKA Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 CSKA Moscow games / 21 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 40% | Draw 32% | Rubin 29%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Rubin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 20% | Rubin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 40% | Draw 32% | Rubin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.24 / Rubin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.874 / def 0.907 | Rubin attack 0.925 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Rubin xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Rubin kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Rubin kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Rubin?
CSKA Moscow 6 - 1 Rubin.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Rubin part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 40% chance of winning, Rubin a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Rubin?
Record (1 meetings): CSKA Moscow 0W | Draws 0 | Rubin 1W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Rubin in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rubin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Rubin's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.93x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
40%
2.53
32%
3.15
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.26
1.02
Rubin xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.02 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, CSKA Moscow have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 12W 3D 6L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin's form line: 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rubin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, CSKA Moscow have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
On the road, Rubin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.33 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin in 62%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Rubin in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 12W 3D 6L in their last 21 games (1.86 PPG), while Rubin have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Rubin away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.00 PPG; Rubin away: 0.80 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Rubin in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 6-1 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
CSKA Moscow
5
Draws
1
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Rubin?
From 8 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 2, Rubin have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rubin 0-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Rubin?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 20%, Rubin 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for CSKA Moscow and 50% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; CSKA Moscow have failed to score in 30% of games; Rubin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 70% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 50% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Rubin tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Rubin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Rubin 6-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.24 xG and Rubin 1.02 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Rubin attack 0.93 / defence 1.39, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 40% | Draw 32% | Rubin 29%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 33%, Rubin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Rubin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Rubin (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.