CSKA Moscow 0-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Nizhny Novgorod.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod make the trip to VEB Arena to face CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. CSKA Moscow's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Nizhny Novgorod's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for CSKA Moscow, 0 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 44% versus Nizhny Novgorod 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 44% | Nizhny Novgorod 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 2.08 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.307 / defence 0.872 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.882 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.264. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 CSKA Moscow games / 45 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 61% | Draw 23% | Nizhny Novgorod 15%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Nizhny Novgorod 6.67. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 50% | Nizhny Novgorod 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 61% | Draw 23% | Nizhny Novgorod 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG CSKA Moscow 2.08 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.307 / def 0.872 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.882 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Nizhny Novgorod xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
CSKA Moscow 0 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 61% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (3 meetings): CSKA Moscow 2W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Nizhny Novgorod's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.88x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.28
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
3.05
0.97
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
52.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.97 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 23W 10D 12L from 45 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 21L across 45 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 14W 5D 3L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.98 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.14 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.18 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 2-6 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
1
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 8, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 41%, Nizhny Novgorod 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (CSKA Moscow) and 50% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 59% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nizhny Novgorod defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat CSKA Moscow 0-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 2.08 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.97 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.31 / defence 0.87 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 61% | Draw 23% | Nizhny Novgorod 15%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Nizhny Novgorod win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 44%, Nizhny Novgorod 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Nizhny Novgorod winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.