CSKA Moscow 1-0 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC UFA at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees FC UFA travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 0.69 xG and FC UFA 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC UFA attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.708 / away 1.847. Data: 0 CSKA Moscow games / 0 FC UFA games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 14% | Draw 22% | FC UFA 64%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | FC UFA 1.56. The model has a clear lean to FC UFA (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC UFA at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 14% | Draw 22% | FC UFA 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 42% | xG CSKA Moscow 0.69 / FC UFA 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC UFA attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.708 / away 1.847 • Poisson stance: FC UFA (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.81
FC UFA xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 0 FC UFA.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA part of?
CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 14% chance of winning, FC UFA a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC UFA the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both CSKA Moscow and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC UFA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC UFA in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates CSKA Moscow's attack at 0.85x the league average against FC UFA's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC UFA Win
14%
7.28
22%
4.50
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.50
1.81
FC UFA xG
7.28
14%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
2%
44.33
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.81 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs FC UFA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Pre-Season
FC UFA
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
0
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 1, FC UFA have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when FC UFA 1-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and FC UFA?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat FC UFA 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat FC UFA 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 0.69 xG and FC UFA 1.81 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC UFA landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC UFA attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 14% | Draw 22% | FC UFA 64%, with FC UFA to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a CSKA Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.