Baltika 0-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Ural in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Baltika's record over their last 4 games: 1W 0D 3L (0.75 PPG). Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Ural (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ural's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Ural arrive in superior form — a 1.35 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ural — key trading statistics (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 50% versus Ural 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 50% | Ural 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.24 xG and Ural 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.938 / defence 1.123 | Ural attack 0.995 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.356. Ural bring a tight defence (rating 0.789, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Baltika's projected output down. Data: built from Baltika's last 4 games and Ural's last 34.
Result probabilities: Baltika 29% | Draw 30% | Ural 41%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.48 | Draw 3.36 | Ural 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ural at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ural if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Baltika 50% (last 4 games) | Ural 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 29% | Draw 30% | Ural 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Baltika 1.24 / Ural 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.938 / def 1.123 | Ural attack 0.995 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Ural (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ural xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Ural FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Ural kick off?
Baltika vs Ural kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Ural?
Baltika 0 - 1 Ural.
Where is Baltika vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Ural part of?
Baltika vs Ural is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 29% chance of winning, Ural a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Baltika and Ural will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.99x) against Baltika's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 4 games and Ural's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.36
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.75
1.51
Ural xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Ural Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Baltika and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Baltika and 1.51 for Ural, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baltika come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 0D 3L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Ural sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W across their last five.
Ural carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Baltika — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Ural in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Early Season
Ural
Early Season
Baltika (Home) vs Ural (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Early Season
Ural
Early Season
❓ Baltika vs Ural Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Ural in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Ural have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Baltika or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ural in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Baltika
0
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Ural H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Ural?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 0, Ural have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Ural last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2024: Ural 2-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 50%, Ural 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Baltika) and 50% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 50%; Baltika have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Ural Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Ural matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Baltika's recent matches and 50% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Ural matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Ural matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Baltika's recent matches and 75% of Ural's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ural edge out Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.24 xG and Ural 1.51 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Ural attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 29% | Draw 30% | Ural 41%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 50%, Ural 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ural's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ural arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.