Akron 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akron at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akron vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Akron welcome CSKA Moscow to Samara Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Akron — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akron's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Samara Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Akron at 1.10 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
CSKA Moscow have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Akron's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Akron in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akron 58% versus CSKA Moscow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akron 58% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akron 1.24 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akron attack 0.889 / defence 1.155 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.866 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 0.977. Data: 52 Akron games / 52 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29%. Fair-value odds: Akron 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akron at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Akron 90% | CSKA Moscow 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akron vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Akron 1.24 / CSKA Moscow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Akron attack 0.889 / def 1.155 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.866 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.621 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Akron (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Akron xG
Expected Goals
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akron vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Akron vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Akron 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Akron vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Akron vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Akron vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akron a 42% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Akron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akron and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Akron vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and CSKA Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Akron 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 3W.
What form are Akron and CSKA Moscow in?
Akron (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Akron's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Akron's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akron Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.49
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Akron xG
Total xG
2.22
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Akron and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Akron and 0.98 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akron's recent record stands at 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 12L across 52 games — 1.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akron heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akron have managed 7W 7D 11L from 25 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 12W 6D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akron are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.56 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akron
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akron and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Akron have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 29W 11D 12L in their last 52 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akron at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akron at home: 1.12 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Akron or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akron have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akron and CSKA Moscow runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2024, when CSKA Moscow won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akron's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Akron
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and CSKA Moscow?
From 5 meetings on record, Akron have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akron and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Akron 2-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akron and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akron 68%, CSKA Moscow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Akron) and 44% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 32%; CSKA Moscow in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akron home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akron play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Akron's games and 48% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akron vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Akron's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akron and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Akron have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Akron 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Akron 1-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.24 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 58%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akron's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.