Akhmat 1-2 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Akhmat Arena plays host to Akhmat versus Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 7 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 7W 0D 3L at Akhmat Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rubin (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Akhmat's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Akhmat have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rubin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Akhmat 0W, Rubin 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Rubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Akhmat half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rubin half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 63% and Rubin 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 63% | Rubin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.84 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.150 / defence 1.090 | Rubin attack 0.872 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.168. Rubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Akhmat games / 19 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 55% | Draw 23% | Rubin 23%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Rubin 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Akhmat (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 60% | Rubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 55% | Draw 23% | Rubin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Akhmat 1.84 / Rubin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.150 / def 1.090 | Rubin attack 0.872 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rubin xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Rubin kick off?
Akhmat vs Rubin kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Rubin?
Akhmat 1 - 2 Rubin.
Where is Akhmat vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Rubin part of?
Akhmat vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 55% chance of winning, Rubin a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Akhmat and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Rubin?
Record (1 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 0 | Rubin 1W.
What form are Akhmat and Rubin in?
Akhmat (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Rubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Akhmat's attack rating (1.15) and Rubin's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.87x) against Akhmat's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.40
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.95
1.11
Rubin xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
27.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.11 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Rubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 10W 0D 9L from 19 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Akhmat by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 7W 0D 3L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rubin's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.32 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Rubin in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 10W 0D 9L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while Rubin have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Rubin away?
Akhmat's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 2.10 PPG; Rubin away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rubin go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Akhmat
0
Draws
7
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Rubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 1, Rubin have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Rubin 1-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 60%, Rubin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Akhmat) and 50% (Rubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Rubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Akhmat's games and 60% of Rubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Akhmat's matches and 50% of Rubin's.
Do Akhmat and Rubin tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Rubin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Akhmat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Akhmat 1-2 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.84 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Akhmat fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Rubin outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Rubin attack 0.87 / defence 1.43, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 55% | Draw 23% | Rubin 23%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Rubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 63%, Rubin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Rubin's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Rubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.