Akhmat 2-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Akhmat Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 5W 0D 5L at Akhmat Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat Arena than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Akhmat lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 58% versus CSKA Moscow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 58% | CSKA Moscow 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.36 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.965 / defence 1.302 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.959 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.278. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Akhmat games / 26 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 32% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 42%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | CSKA Moscow 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 50% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 32% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Akhmat 1.36 / CSKA Moscow 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.965 / def 1.302 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.959 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.59
CSKA Moscow xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Akhmat 2 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 32% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Akhmat and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 1W.
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in?
Akhmat (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.96x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.96x) against Akhmat's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.83
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.95
1.59
CSKA Moscow xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
11%
9.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.59 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 10W 2D 14L from 26 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 7L across 26 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 7W 0D 6L from 13 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 6W 2D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.46 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 10W 2D 14L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 14W 5D 7L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Akhmat's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.62 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Akhmat or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Akhmat
1
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 62%, CSKA Moscow 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Akhmat) and 46% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Akhmat's games and 54% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Akhmat's recent games and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over CSKA Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat CSKA Moscow 2-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.36 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.59 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. CSKA Moscow landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 32% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 42%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 58%, CSKA Moscow 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.