Vizela 0-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Vizela at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vizela host Santa Clara at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Santa Clara — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Vizela are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vizela, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vizela in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 58% versus Santa Clara 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 42% | Santa Clara 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.09 xG and Santa Clara 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.831 / defence 0.955 | Santa Clara attack 0.711 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.100. Data: 43 Vizela games / 43 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 43% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 25%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Santa Clara 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Santa Clara's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vizela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 50% | Santa Clara 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 43% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Vizela 1.09 / Santa Clara 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.831 / def 0.955 | Santa Clara attack 0.711 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Vizela (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Santa Clara xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Santa Clara kick off?
Vizela vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Vizela 0 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Vizela vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Santa Clara part of?
Vizela vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 43% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Vizela and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Santa Clara?
Record (2 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Vizela and Santa Clara in?
Vizela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vizela's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.15
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Vizela xG
Total xG
1.84
0.75
Santa Clara xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Vizela and 0.75 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 10W 14D 19L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara's form line: 10W 15D 18L from 43 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vizela on 1.02 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 1W 7D 13L from 21 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vizela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.02 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 10W 14D 19L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Santa Clara away?
Vizela's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.10 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vizela and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vizela's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vizela
1
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 1, Santa Clara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Santa Clara 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 52%, Santa Clara 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Vizela) and 52% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 38% of games; Santa Clara in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vizela's recent matches and 52% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Vizela's recent games and 52% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.09 xG and Santa Clara 0.75 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Santa Clara attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 43% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 25%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 42%, Santa Clara 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.02 PPG, Santa Clara 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.