Vizela 1-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Maritimo meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Vizela's home record at Estádio Do Vizela: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Maritimo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Maritimo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 62% versus Maritimo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 47% | Maritimo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.11 xG and Maritimo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.808 / defence 1.199 | Maritimo attack 0.887 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.179. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Vizela games / 32 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 39%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Maritimo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Maritimo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 40% | Maritimo 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Vizela 1.11 / Maritimo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.808 / def 1.199 | Maritimo attack 0.887 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Maritimo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Maritimo kick off?
Vizela vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Maritimo?
Vizela 1 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Vizela vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Maritimo part of?
Vizela vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 32% chance of winning, Maritimo a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vizela and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Vizela and Maritimo in?
Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.81x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.89x) against Vizela's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
32%
3.15
30%
3.38
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.37
1.25
Maritimo xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vizela and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vizela and 1.25 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela's recent record stands at 7W 11D 14L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 13L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Vizela against 1.16 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Current Season
Maritimo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Maritimo away?
Maritimo's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.12 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 3-0 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vizela
1
Draws
2
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 1, Maritimo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Maritimo 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 56%, Maritimo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Vizela) and 56% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vizela's games and 62% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vizela's recent games and 56% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Maritimo tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Maritimo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela and Maritimo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.11 xG and Maritimo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Maritimo attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 32% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 39%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 47%, Maritimo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.00 PPG, Maritimo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.