Vizela 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 46%, yet in-form GIL Vicente provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vizela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Do Vizela, Vizela have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Vizela are significantly better at Estádio Do Vizela than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, GIL Vicente are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vizela, 1 for GIL Vicente and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 38% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.59 xG and GIL Vicente 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.988 / defence 1.080 | GIL Vicente attack 0.928 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.236. Data: 37 Vizela games / 37 GIL Vicente games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vizela 46% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 30%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 3.33. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIL Vicente (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 60% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 46% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Vizela 1.59 / GIL Vicente 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.988 / def 1.080 | GIL Vicente attack 0.928 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Vizela (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.24
GIL Vicente xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Vizela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Vizela 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Vizela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Vizela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vizela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
Record (4 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Vizela and GIL Vicente in?
Vizela (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.93x) against Vizela's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.05
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.83
1.24
GIL Vicente xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Vizela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vizela and 1.24 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 8D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (11W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Vizela against 1.08 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vizela's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (4W 1D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.08 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or GIL Vicente away?
Vizela's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.11 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Vizela have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 39%, GIL Vicente 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 61% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 44% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Vizela's recent matches and 61% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vizela's matches and 61% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Vizela and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vizela edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.59 xG and GIL Vicente 1.24 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 46% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 30%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, GIL Vicente 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.11 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.