SC Braga 0-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Braga plays host to SC Braga versus Chaves in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Braga have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Braga have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estádio Municipal de Braga — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chaves (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in SC Braga's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — SC Braga have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Chaves in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
SC Braga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Chaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 40% versus Chaves 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 70% | Chaves 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.77 xG and Chaves 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.339 / defence 0.823 | Chaves attack 0.856 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.092. SC Braga carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 SC Braga games / 8 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 61% | Draw 23% | Chaves 16%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Chaves 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 30% | Chaves 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 61% | Draw 23% | Chaves 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG SC Braga 1.77 / Chaves 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.339 / def 0.823 | Chaves attack 0.856 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Chaves xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Chaves kick off?
SC Braga vs Chaves kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Chaves?
SC Braga 0 - 1 Chaves.
Where is SC Braga vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Chaves part of?
SC Braga vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 61% chance of winning, Chaves a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SC Braga and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Braga and Chaves in?
SC Braga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 1.34x the league average against Chaves's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.86x) against SC Braga's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.38
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.54
0.77
Chaves xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
3%
37.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.77 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, SC Braga have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 7W 1D 2L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chaves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Braga have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
On the road, Chaves have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Braga are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.90 scored and 1.00 conceded. SC Braga's scoring rate against Chaves's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Chaves in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while Chaves have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Chaves away?
SC Braga's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.60 PPG; Chaves away: 1.20 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Chaves in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Braga have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SC Braga
1
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 2, Chaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2024, when SC Braga 1-1 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Chaves?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (SC Braga) and 20% (Chaves) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SC Braga) and 40% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Chaves in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SC Braga's recent matches and 20% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SC Braga's recent games and 40% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Chaves tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Chaves in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat SC Braga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat SC Braga 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.77 xG and Chaves 0.77 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Chaves attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 61% | Draw 23% | Chaves 16%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Chaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 70%, Chaves 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Chaves's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Chaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Chaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.