Santa Clara 2-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Estoril travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santa Clara have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio de São Miguel — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estoril have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Santa Clara 1.40 PPG, Estoril 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 0, Estoril 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Estoril in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 57% versus Estoril 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 61% | Estoril 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.22 xG and Estoril 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.008 / defence 1.115 | Estoril attack 0.604 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.278. Data: 28 Santa Clara games / 28 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 34% | Estoril 24%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Estoril 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 60% | Estoril 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 34% | Estoril 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Santa Clara 1.22 / Estoril 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.008 / def 1.115 | Estoril attack 0.604 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Estoril xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Estoril kick off?
Santa Clara vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Santa Clara 2 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Santa Clara vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Estoril part of?
Santa Clara vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 42% chance of winning, Estoril a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Santa Clara and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estoril?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Santa Clara and Estoril in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (1.01) and Estoril's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.94
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.08
0.86
Estoril xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.86 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Santa Clara have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 7W 10D 11L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Estoril's form line: 8W 10D 10L from 28 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.11 PPG, Estoril on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santa Clara have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estoril have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.14 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Current Season
Estoril
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Estoril in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Estoril have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Estoril away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.64 PPG; Estoril away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Estoril in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Santa Clara
1
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 4, Estoril have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Estoril?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 57%, Estoril 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Santa Clara) and 36% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Estoril in 36%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 29% of games; Estoril in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 43% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Santa Clara's recent games and 36% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Estoril tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Estoril in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Estoril 2-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.22 xG and Estoril 0.86 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estoril landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Estoril attack 0.60 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 42% | Draw 34% | Estoril 24%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 61%, Estoril 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Estoril's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.11 PPG, Estoril 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.