Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Santa Clara (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio de São Miguel. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Benfica have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Benfica, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Santa Clara — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Benfica — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 43% versus Benfica 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 38% | Benfica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.817 / defence 1.017 | Benfica attack 1.148 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.194. Data: 21 Santa Clara games / 55 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 30% | Draw 28% | Benfica 42%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Benfica 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 40% | Benfica 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 30% | Draw 28% | Benfica 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Santa Clara 1.14 / Benfica 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.817 / def 1.017 | Benfica attack 1.148 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Benfica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Benfica xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Benfica kick off?
Santa Clara vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Santa Clara 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Santa Clara vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Benfica part of?
Santa Clara vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 30% chance of winning, Benfica a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santa Clara and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Benfica?
Record (5 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 5W.
What form are Santa Clara and Benfica in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.15x) against Santa Clara's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
30%
3.33
28%
3.60
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.53
1.40
Benfica xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.40 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santa Clara come into this having played 21 games, going 12W 2D 7L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (15W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Santa Clara's home form reads 7W 1D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 1.70 points per game from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santa Clara are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Benfica in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 12W 2D 7L in their last 21 games (1.81 PPG), while Benfica have gone 15W 2D 4L in their last 21 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Benfica away?
Santa Clara's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 2.20 PPG; Benfica away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-5 on 11 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santa Clara have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Santa Clara
1
Draws
7
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 0, Benfica have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 40%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Santa Clara) and 40% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Santa Clara's recent games and 40% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Benfica tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benfica in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Santa Clara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Santa Clara 0-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.40 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 30% | Draw 28% | Benfica 42%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 38%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.81. Form held, and they took the win. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.