Portimonense 1-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 6 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Portimonense (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portimonense have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estádio Municipal de Portimão — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Portimonense are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Portimão than their overall form suggests.
Pacos Ferreira have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Portimonense, 0.70 for Pacos Ferreira — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Portimonense 1W, Pacos Ferreira 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Portimonense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 38% versus Pacos Ferreira 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Portimonense 38% | Pacos Ferreira 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.12 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.744 / defence 1.052 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.843 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.012. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Portimonense games / 53 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 40% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 29%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Pacos Ferreira 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Portimonense as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 50% | Pacos Ferreira 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 40% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Portimonense 1.12 / Pacos Ferreira 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.744 / def 1.052 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.843 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Pacos Ferreira xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 February 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Portimonense 1 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 40% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (3 meetings): Portimonense 1W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 1W.
What form are Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira in?
Portimonense (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Portimonense's attack rating (0.74) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.84x) against Portimonense's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.28
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.01
0.90
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Portimonense and 0.90 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 10D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 0.85 PPG from 52 outings (10W 14D 28L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Portimonense against 0.85 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Portimonense's home form reads 7W 6D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.75 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 16W 10D 26L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 10W 14D 28L in their last 52 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Portimonense's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.08 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Portimonense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 15 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Portimonense
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2023, when Portimonense 1-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 52%, Pacos Ferreira 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Portimonense) and 32% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 28% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Portimonense's recent matches and 32% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Portimonense's recent games and 32% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Pacos Ferreira 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Pacos Ferreira 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.12 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.90 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacos Ferreira landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.74 / defence 1.05 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 40% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 29%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 38%, Pacos Ferreira 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.12 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.