Portimonense 1-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Portimonense take on Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Portimonense and Arouca meet at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense's home record at Estádio Municipal de Portimão: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Primeira Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season.
Arouca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Arouca have posted 0W 3D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.43 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Portimonense's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Arouca's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Portimonense — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 14% versus Arouca 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 36% | Arouca 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 0.98 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.687 / defence 1.151 | Arouca attack 0.675 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.346. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Portimonense games / 14 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 30% | Draw 36% | Arouca 34%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Arouca 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 14% | Arouca 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 30% | Draw 36% | Arouca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Portimonense 0.98 / Arouca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.687 / def 1.151 | Arouca attack 0.675 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arouca xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Arouca kick off?
Portimonense vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Arouca?
Portimonense 1 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Portimonense vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Arouca part of?
Portimonense vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 30% chance of winning, Arouca a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Portimonense and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Arouca in?
Portimonense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Arouca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Portimonense's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.68x) against Portimonense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.28
36%
2.80
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.03
1.05
Arouca xG
3.28
30%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.05 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portimonense's recent record stands at 7W 2D 5L from 14 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 7L across 14 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portimonense by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.64 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Arouca's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arouca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portimonense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.07 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; Arouca in 64%.
Defensively: Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Arouca in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Arouca have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Arouca away?
Portimonense's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.00 PPG; Arouca away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Arouca in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Portimonense
2
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Arouca?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Portimonense 1-2 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 14%, Arouca 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Portimonense) and 57% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 71% of games; Arouca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Portimonense's recent matches and 57% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Portimonense's recent games and 57% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Arouca tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Arouca in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portimonense and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 15, as Portimonense and Arouca drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 0.98 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.69 / defence 1.15 against Arouca attack 0.68 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 30% | Draw 36% | Arouca 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 36%, Arouca 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Arouca's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.