Pacos Ferreira 0-3 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 26 August 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pacos Ferreira are significantly better at Estádio da Capital do Móvel than their overall form suggests.
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Estoril have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Pacos Ferreira, 0.90 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Pacos Ferreira 0W, Estoril 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 42% versus Estoril 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 33% | Estoril 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.10 xG and Estoril 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.826 / defence 1.278 | Estoril attack 0.797 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.020. Data: 36 Pacos Ferreira games / 37 Estoril games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 30% | Estoril 34%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacos Ferreira are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 70% | Estoril 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 30% | Estoril 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.10 / Estoril 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.826 / def 1.278 | Estoril attack 0.797 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Estoril xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 3 Estoril.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 37% chance of winning, Estoril a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Estoril in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pacos Ferreira's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.80x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.37
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.14
1.04
Estoril xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.04 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 11D 16L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril's form line: 9W 13D 14L from 36 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.11 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.06 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Estoril in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Estoril have gone 9W 13D 14L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Estoril away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.06 PPG; Estoril away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Estoril in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Estoril have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Estoril 1-3 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 59%, Estoril 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pacos Ferreira) and 35% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 35% of games; Estoril in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 41% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 35% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Estoril tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Estoril in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estoril run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Pacos Ferreira 0-3 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.10 xG and Estoril 1.04 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Estoril outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.83 / defence 1.28 against Estoril attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 30% | Estoril 34%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 33%, Estoril 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estoril's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 1.06 PPG, Estoril 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.